Ralph's Oscar Watch

You may not be a big movie fan, or even care about the Academy Awards, but I guarantee you'll be coming back here after the awards show to see if I was right.


I have achieved what I think is quite an accomplishment this year. I have seen EVERY one of the nominees for all the major categories in film for 2008. And I have not stepped foot inside a theater for over 2 years. (Thank you Internet.)

So after having seen every nominee for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Actress, and Director (and what will probably win for Best Documentary) I feel as qualified as anyone to predict the winners. Here we go.. (# = 1 Star, ##### = 5 Stars, Stars equal rank among the nominees)



Best Picture:

Tough race here, a few could take the title, but one should win for certain.



"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" - #
"Frost/Nixon" - ##
"Milk" - ####
"The Reader" - ###
"Slumdog Millionaire" - #####


Slumdog IS the Best Picture of 2008. No doubt. Great story, well done, climactic ending, very original film, unknown actors, filmed outside the USA, it's got everything the Academy loves.

But look out for "Milk", the true story of the first Gay politician, a pioneer in Gay Rights, Harvey Milk. Most of us have heard of him, none of us knew his story. Amazing acting job from Sean Penn. A close second place.

Worthy, not nominated: "The Wrestler" and "Doubt".

Best Actor:



Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon" - #
Sean Penn, "Milk" - ####
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" - ###
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler" - #####
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor" - ##


Sean Penn would be a worthy winner here, but Mickey Rourke was amazing. I've never been a fan of his, at all. A guy who ruined his own career years ago, makes a comeback for the ages. Plus the film was a brilliant look behind the scenes of an aged Pro Wrestler, now known by only a handful of fans who still recognize him, and still trying to cash in on that fandom. Very sad, one can imagine this is a documentary about Sgt. Slaughter or The Iron Sheik.



Best Actress:


Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married" - ##
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling" - ###
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River" - #
Meryl Streep, "Doubt" - ####
Kate Winslet, "The Reader" - #####

This is a two woman race. Meryl Streep is just incredible, but she always is. It's at the point where you just expect her to be great and she is once again. Jolie was good in an emotional, non-sexy role. But Kate Winslet is by far the BEST actress in 2008, appearing in 2 roles that could share this award ("Revolutionary Road" was her other Oscar-worthy performance). She has never won the Oscar after 5 nominations, but that streak stops here.



Best Supporting Actor:


Josh Brolin, "Milk" - ####
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder" - #
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt" - ###
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight" - #####
Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road" - ##


No-brainer, Heath Ledger. First off, he was great. Second off, he's dead. Even if he hadn't died too soon, he'd likely win anyway. He re-invented the role of The Joker as a maniacal psycho and you truly forget it's him playing that role. He's got a 1-20 odds in Vegas to win, (not 20 to 1, 1 to 20). Bet your $20 and win a dollar.



Best Supporting Actress:


Amy Adams, "Doubt" - ###
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" - #####
Viola Davis, "Doubt" - #
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" - ##
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler" - ####

Another tight race, and the only one here I feel I could get wrong. Viola Davis was good, but appeared in only 2 scenes. That's right, 2 scenes! Important scenes to the movie, but not nearly enough to qualify in this group. My choice would be Marisa Tomei, the reluctant love-interest for Mickey Rourke's over-the-hill wrestler. Lots of naked scenes, which certainly helped, but her role in Rourke's character's life was hugely important in this film.


However, I think Penelope Cruz will take this award. She comes out of nowhere with a larger than life personality, one moment a raging woman scorned, the next a compassionate sweet lover, then back to psycho. She steps in and steals the film. Actresses in Woody Allen films are especially blessed at awards time, so for that reason I predict her as the winner.



Best Director:


Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire" - #####
Stephen Daldry, "The Reader" - #
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" - ###
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon" - ##
Gus Van Sant, "Milk" - ####

What do I know about Directing? Nothing. I can only look at the scope of a film and how difficult it must've been to film its scenes. Benjamin Button will win ALL the technical awards for making Brad Pitt 2 feet shorter and aging backwards. "Milk" had a lot of outdoor crowd scenes and recreated San Francisco in the 1970's. But Slumdog Millionaire was much wider in scope, expanded on the lives of the characters over 2 dozen years, and continually answered the questions it posed as the film went along. The basic concept of the film is that an uneducated kid from the trash-piles of India somehow knowing all the answers posed to him on a game show and as each question is asked, we see flashbacks in his life that explain how he knows the answers. And we find the real reason he's on the show in the first place (it's NOT to win the money).

Because Best Picture and Best Director often go hand-in-hand, I'm picking Slumdog Millionaire to take home both awards.


Best Documentary:


I only saw one of the nominees, but I saw the winner. About Phillipe Petit, the high-wire walker who traversed the Twin Towers shortly after they were built was just excellent. Complete with home movies of the young Petit in his backyard and a re-creation of how his "team" got him and his wire up to the top of TWC was just fascinating to watch for those of us who remember when he did it. Now we see how he did it, and why.



One last note: Bruce Springsteen not even being nominated for Best Song for a song he did exclusively for The Wrestler is a downright shame. My Springsteen fandom ended with "The River" album. Nothing he's done since even interests me. And when it comes to movie songs, most are just add-on's that aren't even heard during the film. Other than the James Bond theme songs, name a song and the movie it's born from? You can't. And yes, this Bruce song comes during the closing credits. But it totally sums up the main character and makes a perfect musical ending to a great film. You can imagine the main character singing this song about himself.



That's it. If you rent movies, take my advice and rent The Wrestler, Milk, Doubt, and of course, Slumdog Millionaire when they become available legally. You won't be sorry you spent a couple hours with any of them.